BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said the global oil market is expected to recover gradually following a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though it warned that full normalization will take time and could eventually lead to a supply surplus by 2027.
TurkicWorld reports that according to the IEA, the resumption of Iranian exports and the lifting of US naval restrictions could help reverse a major disruption that previously removed more than 14 million barrels per day of oil output from global markets.
The agency noted that if the agreement holds, oil production and exports from Gulf countries are expected to recover steadily, particularly as Iranian crude shipments are able to fully resume under eased restrictions.
The IEA said in its monthly oil market report that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had already begun increasing in early June, supported by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Total flows reportedly rose from a low of 9.6 million barrels per day in May to around 12 million barrels per day.
However, the agency warned that a full recovery will not be immediate, as maritime security challenges remain. These include the clearance of naval mines from key shipping routes and the gradual normalization of disrupted supply chains.
The report highlights how closely global energy markets remain tied to geopolitical developments in the Gulf region and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for international oil trade.
