BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 8. A year ago, on August 8, 2025, an event took place in Washington that can already be considered one of the most significant in the modern history of the South Caucasus. With U.S. mediation, Azerbaijan and Armenia took a step that just a few years ago seemed virtually impossible: after more than three decades of conflict, the two sides agreed to peace and began building a new model of relations.
Over the past twelve months, the region has changed significantly. Peace has been effectively established between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the process of delimiting the state border continues, meetings are held regularly at various levels, and political dialogue is developing. For the first time in many years, transport routes have begun to function: supplies are being sent from Azerbaijan to Armenia, as well as cargo transiting through Azerbaijan to Armenia.
All of this testifies to a gradual transition from an era of confrontation to a stage of practical cooperation. Moreover, these ongoing changes are impacting not only the bilateral relations between Baku and Yerevan, but also the transportation, economic, and geopolitical architecture of the entire region.
Washington summit: beginning of new era
It's important to remember how this process began. After the war, it was Azerbaijan that initiated the transition from military confrontation to a political settlement. The architect of this peace process was President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, who consistently translated the victory achieved on the battlefield into the political realm and laid a concrete foundation for establishing a long-term peace.
Azerbaijan was the first to formulate five fundamental principles for normalizing relations with Armenia:
- Mutual recognition by states of each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of their international borders, and political independence;
- Mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims against each other and the acceptance of a legal obligation not to make such claims in the future;
- Refraining from threatening each other's security in interstate relations, the use of threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity, and other circumstances inconsistent with the purposes of the UN Charter;
- Delimitation and demarcation of the state border, establishment of diplomatic relations;
- Opening of transport and communications, construction of other relevant communications, and establishment of cooperation in other areas of mutual interest.
On August 8, 2025, following a trilateral meeting between President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump, a Joint Declaration was signed on ensuring peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia and restoring transport links between the mainland of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. The project was named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.
At the same time, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, initialed the draft "Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia" and signed a joint appeal to the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office regarding the termination of the OSCE Minsk Process, the institution of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, and the High-Level Planning Group.
The Washington summit was more than just a diplomatic event. It marked the final transition from years of conflict negotiations to the practical implementation of a peace agenda. For the first time in many years, the focus was not on finding a settlement formula, but on issues of cooperation between the two states after reaching fundamental agreements.
As President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with local TV channels on Jan. 5, 2026, after decades of living in war, Azerbaijan has begun to learn "what it is like to live in peace."
"We are learning what it is like to live in peace since after gaining independence, and even before that, the people and the state of Azerbaijan lived in a state of war. There were different stages of the war. You remember that well. The active stage of the war, the stage of the ceasefire, the Second Karabakh War, the anti-terrorist operation, the period that followed it – all these events ended in August of last year. In other words, Azerbaijan has put a political seal on the brilliant Victory it achieved on the battlefield and, as I mentioned, we did it in the world's number one office. This, of course, will be one of the most memorable events in the history of our independence, perhaps among the first of them. From this point of view, the past year can be regarded as a very successful and historic year for our country, for our people, and I am sure that from now on the people of Azerbaijan will live in peace. Although we have been living in these conditions for only five months, we are already seeing the fruition of this – both on the political and economic planes. There is an upbeat mood in society, there is greater confidence in stability and security. All these factors, of course, have enabled us to successfully move forward and continue to address all the tasks facing the country," the head of state said.
It's significant that the practical value of the new reality is gradually being recognized in Armenia as well. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, assessing the consequences of the end of the 35-year conflict, stated that peace with Azerbaijan is precisely what Armenia lacked to preserve and develop its independence.
According to Pashinyan, peace has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and, as he noted, "there is no more reliable guarantee of security than peace."
The changes that have taken place are gradually being perceived not only as the result of specific diplomatic agreements, but also as a long-term necessity for both countries.
Elimination of ineffective mechanism
The practical implementation of the agreements reached in Washington began immediately.
On August 11, 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia jointly appealed to the OSCE Secretary General with a request to dissolve the Minsk Group. The full text of the peace agreement between the two countries was published that same day.
A few months later, on December 1, 2025, the OSCE officially terminated the Minsk Group, which had failed to achieve any practical results in resolving the conflict for 30 years.
This decision effectively marked the end of the format established in the 1990s. The closure of the Minsk Group was not simply a procedural step, but a symbol of the end of an entire era in the history of the conflict and a recognition that further resolution would be carried out directly by the parties themselves.
World beginning to work for economy
One of the most notable results of the first year after the Washington summit was the gradual emergence of elements of economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
On October 21, 2025, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, delivering a joint press statement with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, announced that Azerbaijan had lifted all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia that had been in place since the occupation.
The first cargo to transit the new route was grain from Kazakhstan. Since then, various products have been regularly shipped to Armenia from Kazakhstan and Russia through Azerbaijan, as well as from Azerbaijan.
An even more significant event was the supply of Azerbaijani petroleum products to Armenia. As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan previously stated, diesel fuel prices in his country had fallen by 20% thanks to peace with Azerbaijan. He stated that imports of petroleum products from Azerbaijan had broken the decades-old monopoly in Armenia's fuel sector.
To date, more than 36,000 tons of grain, approximately 9,000 tons of fertilizer, 1,136 tons of propane, 133 tons of aluminum, 414 tons of anthracite, and 67,000 tons of timber have been transited from Russia to Armenia through Azerbaijan. During the same period, Azerbaijan exported approximately 15,000 tons of diesel fuel, as well as approximately 5,000 tons of RON-92 and RON-95 gasoline. Expanding the range of trade between Azerbaijan and Armenia is also possible in the future.
Just a year ago, such logistics would have seemed practically impossible. Today, transit traffic is becoming one of the most visible manifestations of these changes. In essence, the South Caucasus is gradually returning to its natural role as a transit bridge between East and West, and transport is beginning to serve as one of the main instruments for building trust between neighboring states.
Dialogue becomes ongoing process
While for decades, any contacts between Azerbaijan and Armenia took place exclusively within the framework of crisis diplomacy and international mediation, a year after the Washington summit, bilateral dialogue effectively became a permanent mechanism of interaction.
A key role in this was played not only by direct contacts between Baku and Yerevan, but also by the ongoing support of the peace process by the United States.
As early as November 2025, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Alison Hooker announced the launch of a special working group to further support the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Its task was not mediation in the traditional sense, but rather to facilitate the implementation of existing agreements and maintain sustainable negotiating momentum.
At the same time, the parties began to gradually expand their bilateral political dialogue.
One of the first practical humanitarian measures was Azerbaijan's decision in January 2026 to transfer four convicted individuals to Armenia: Vagif Khachatryan, Gevorg Sujyan, David Davtyan, and Vicken Euljekjyan. The transfer was carried out in accordance with the agreements reached between the parties and the principles of humanism.
This step was further evidence that the normalization process was gradually moving beyond purely political statements and acquiring practical substance.
Leaders consolidate new momentum
Regular contacts between the leaderships of the two countries were particularly important for maintaining the progress achieved.
In February 2026, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi. Following the meeting, the parties confirmed their intention to maintain the positive momentum in the normalization process and emphasized their commitment to developing a bilateral negotiating format without returning to previous mechanisms of international mediation. Equally significant was the agreement between the leaders to explore opportunities for expanding trade and economic cooperation.
Just a few years ago, such a formulation of the issue would have seemed impossible. While previously meetings between Baku and Yerevan focused exclusively on security issues and the consequences of the conflict, now the economy, investment, transport links, and joint projects are gradually beginning to take center stage.
This is evidence of a qualitative change in the nature of relations between the two states.
Shortly after their meeting in Abu Dhabi, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan met again in Washington, on the sidelines of the first meeting of the Peace Council chaired by US President Donald Trump. The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, also joined the conversation, underscoring the growing attention of the countries of the region to the formation of a new cooperation architecture in the South Caucasus.
On delimitation process
Over the past year, a number of delimitation commission meetings have been held to discuss practical issues of delineating the state border, conducting geodetic surveys, and preparing the relevant documentation.
It's significant that the meetings were held in a constructive atmosphere and concluded with joint statements from the parties, something that would have been virtually unimaginable just a few years ago.
In particular, following the thirteenth meeting of the commissions in Aghveran, Armenia, the parties reaffirmed their commitment to continuing the delimitation process and noted the positive dynamics in the implementation of previously reached agreements.
In July, it was announced that approximately 13 kilometers of the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia had already been delimited, and demarcation work had also been completed in these areas. Certain agreements were reached that the delimitation process would continue from north to south.
TRIPP: from peace agreement to a new transport reality
One of the most illustrative examples of how the achieved peace is gradually being translated into concrete infrastructure projects is the implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). If the Washington summit created the political basis for restoring transport links, TRIPP is intended to transform this agreement into physical infrastructure capable of changing the region's transport map.
Speaking at the opening of the 4th Shusha Global Media Forum on July 13, President Ilham Aliyev clearly outlined the broader significance of the launch of TRIPP.
"Practical work on the ground will start, hopefully, this year. So, this will completely change the connectivity map of the region. This will lead to security in the South Caucasus. We need that badly, and this will lead to cooperation in the South Caucasus in a good spirit," the head of state said.
Although the project is being implemented directly between the U.S. and Armenia, its significance cannot be viewed solely in a bilateral context. The entry and exit points of the route are located in Azerbaijani territory, so the American side regularly informs Baku of the project's progress.
Physical construction work on the 42-kilometer section of the Zangezur Corridor running through Armenia is expected to begin in 2026.
For its part, Azerbaijan is already fulfilling its obligations at an accelerated pace. Construction of new railways and roads on Azerbaijani territory is at a high level, and Baku expects both routes to reach the Armenian border by early 2027.
It's significant that the potential of TRIPP is gradually gaining recognition in Armenia itself. On June 7, the day of parliamentary election, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the project a game-changer and beneficial to all countries in the region. According to him, TRIPP is beneficial not only to Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also to Türkiye, Georgia, and Iran.
Practical preparations for the project's implementation have already begun. In May, representatives of the American engineering and consulting firm AECOM began surveying the TRIPP site in Armenia. The AECOM team arrived in Yerevan on behalf of the US State Department's Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership Fund.
Work on the project continued at the diplomatic level. On August 5 in Yerevan, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan discussed the implementation of TRIPP with Ari Lightstone, Senior Advisor to the US Special Envoy for Peace Missions. The parties emphasized their interest in moving to the practical implementation of the program on the ground in a short time.
It's worth noting that the American side highly appreciates the importance of this route.
In an exclusive interview with Trend on the sidelines of Baku Energy Week, U.S. Special Envoy for Peace Missions Aryeh Lightstone said that the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity has much greater potential than initially thought.
According to him, TRIPP was initially seen primarily as a way to connect the bulk of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and ensure sustainable peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, it later became obvious that the significance of the project was much broader.
"Azerbaijan becomes a central focus going to the C5 (five Central Asian countries), which is now the C6 (five Central Asian countries plus Azerbaijan), and extending all the way to the west," the American special envoy noted.
In this sense, TRIPP is becoming a key element of the new model. The road, which is intended to pass through Armenia and connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, is potentially becoming much more – a link between the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Western markets.
Trump's role in peace process and new era of Azerbaijani-American partnership
The role of U.S. President Donald Trump deserves special attention in the context of the results of the first year since the Washington summit. In a broader sense, what has happened during this period can be seen not only as a new stage in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, but also as the beginning of a fundamentally new era in relations between Azerbaijan and the United States.
For Baku, American participation became particularly significant precisely because, at a crucial moment, Washington focused not on maintaining the existing status quo, but on achieving a concrete political outcome – peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia and creating the conditions for its long-term consolidation.
In May 2026, Donald Trump himself, congratulating President Ilham Aliyev on Azerbaijan's Independence Day, emphasized that the United States continues to support lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"We are encouraged by Azerbaijan's efforts to advance the peace agreement you initialed last August, including the ongoing border delimitation process, the release of four Armenian prisoners in January 2026, fuel shipments to Armenia, and the Peace Bridge initiative bringing together the two countries' civil societies," the U.S. President emphasized.
At the same time, Trump linked support for the peace process directly with the prospect of further development of relations with Baku, stating that he looks forward to "continuing to strengthen our strategic partnership in the years and decades to come.
This is a fundamentally important formulation. The Washington process in this case is not limited to resolving the conflict between the two countries. It is becoming the basis for expanding bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and the U.S.—from political cooperation and energy to infrastructure, regional security, and new economic projects.
President Ilham Aliyev, in turn, has repeatedly emphasized the fundamental difference between the Trump administration's approach and the policies of previous American administrations.
"Yes, there is a big difference between what President Trump has done and is doing and what his predecessors did. Because unfortunately, during the period of occupation, which lasted for almost 30 years, American administrations, along with the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, were mainly pursuing the policy of freezing the conflict, not liberating Azerbaijani territory based on the resolutions of the Security Council of the United Nations, which they themselves adopted. But their goal was to freeze the situation and to use it as leverage over Azerbaijan and also, to a certain degree, over Armenia. All of them were working in a very synchronized way, and all the activity of the OSCE Minsk Group was aimed not at the resolution of the conflict but at making the occupation endless.
President Trump's approach was quite different. He is a person who loves peace, a person who brings peace to many destinations, as he himself tells he brought peace to eight conflicts, and this is his character. This is his vision and his policy.
So, in our case, his role was very important when Azerbaijan and Armenia were in the final stage of negotiations on a peace agreement. President Trump and his team stepped in, and they created such a framework that peace became possible," President Ilham Aliyev said, speaking at the opening of the Shusha Media Forum.
Subsequent developments confirmed that this was not an episodic diplomatic success.
In February 2026, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Azerbaijan and Armenia. During his visit to Azerbaijan, the Charter on Strategic Partnership between the governments of Azerbaijan and the United States was signed. The publication of such a document within months of the Washington summit demonstrates how quickly the political momentum generated by Trump began to transform into an institutional foundation for bilateral relations.
Another historic decision was Trump's signing of a directive in the Oval Office in August 2025, in the presence of President Ilham Aliyev, suspending Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. For Azerbaijan, this move was of particular political significance, as it addressed a restriction that had remained one of the most sensitive issues in relations between Baku and Washington for decades.
Thus, in a relatively short period of time, a number of new elements of Azerbaijani-American cooperation were established: Washington's active participation in achieving peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, support for regional transport connectivity, the suspension of Section 907, the U.S. Vice President's visit to the region, and the signing of the Charter on Strategic Partnership.
A personal factor is also important. At the signing ceremony of the Charter of the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2026, Donald Trump, speaking about relations with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, stated: "Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia - President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have become my friends."
A new era in Azerbaijan-U.S. relations is emerging simultaneously on two levels. The first is political: Washington became a direct participant in the process that led to the historic agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The second is strategic: the achieved peace has created space for a qualitative expansion of the Azerbaijani-American partnership itself.
In this context, the Washington summit was not an end point, but the beginning of a much larger process.
Rating agencies note effect of normalization in Baku and Yerevan
Another indicator of how much the perception of the situation in the South Caucasus has changed in the year since the Washington summit is the assessments of international rating agencies. While political statements document the achievement of peace and a change in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Moody's, Fitch Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings assess this process in terms of its impact on political risks, the investment climate, trade, economic growth, and the creditworthiness of these countries.
One of the most notable signals was Moody's decision to improve the outlook on Armenia's long-term ratings from "stable" to "positive," while maintaining the long-term issuer ratings in both local and foreign currencies at Ba3.
The agency itself directly linked the outlook change to the progress of the peace agenda with Azerbaijan.
"The positive outlook reflects a significant reduction in political risks, driven by the lower likelihood of a resumption of large-scale hostilities with Azerbaijan, a reorientation of external relations toward a more diversified set of partners, and muted domestic political risks," Moody's reported.
In another report, Moody's already considers the implications of normalization in a broader regional context. The agency notes that geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus have become more favorable.
"Growing economic interaction between Azerbaijan and Armenia, progress on regional transport corridors, and continued international support for the peace process are gradually improving regional connectivity and mitigating geopolitical risks, despite the absence of a formally ratified peace treaty," the report states.
Another Moody's report emphasizes that the U.S.-brokered peace plan reached in August 2025 creates a solid foundation for normalizing relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"Risks associated with the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia remain, but we believe it is unlikely that the conflict will escalate to a point that would significantly delay policymaking or negatively impact the countries' economic and fiscal prospects in 2026. The U.S.-brokered peace plan between Armenia and Azerbaijan reached in August 2025 creates a solid foundation for normalizing bilateral relations," the agency notes.
It's significant that even before the Washington meeting, Fitch Ratings had already assessed the likelihood of a resumption of large-scale military conflict as low. In July 2025, even before the August meeting in Washington, the agency noted that a return to military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia was unlikely.
Following the August meeting, Fitch became more specific in its assessment. Fitch stated that the framework peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a positive step towards a comprehensive agreement and reduces the risk of renewed hostilities.
"Achieving a peace agreement is unlikely to have an immediate impact on any country's ratings, but could support positive medium-term credit trends, particularly through expanded trade, which could boost economic growth, although this is difficult to quantify," Fitch noted.
For Azerbaijan, Fitch highlights another potential benefit of easing tensions with Armenia: the opportunity to focus on domestic economic reforms, primarily economic diversification and strengthening public administration.
TRIPP takes a special place in the agency's assessment. According to Fitch, the implementation of the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity could contribute to export growth and long-term economic development for Azerbaijan.
Fitch considers Azerbaijan's decision in October 2025 to allow overland cargo transit to Armenia as another sign of easing tensions. "Several large-scale infrastructure investment projects could provide additional long-term growth prospects, including the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity," the agency notes.
At the same time, Fitch directly links the potential for improving Armenia's medium-term economic prospects to the consistent implementation of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the opening of the border with Türkiye.
S&P Global Ratings offers a similar assessment. The rating agency notes that normalization efforts could reduce the likelihood of future military escalation and thereby mitigate risks to regional security. S&P is already recording the first practical changes. "The first steps toward normalization have already led to a moderate improvement in regional connectivity and trade," the report notes. S&P analysts also call the U.S.-brokered agreement reached in August 2025 an important political milestone, demonstrating the commitment of the two countries' leaderships to the peace process and contributing to the stabilization of the security situation.
Peace architecture created: what remains to do
Today, a year after the historic Washington meeting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the region is effectively enjoying peace. From the very beginning, Baku's approach was not to temporarily end the confrontation, but to create a new architecture of relations based on mutual recognition and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the two states.
Over the past period, Azerbaijan has consistently fulfilled its obligations. Baku has repeatedly emphasized that, to finalize peace, Armenia must remove from its Constitution provisions containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
Namely this issue remains one of the final elements necessary for the final legal consolidation of peace.
In this sense, the experience of Azerbaijan and Armenia already extends far beyond the scope of a bilateral settlement. As President Ilham Aliyev noted at the Zayed Award for Human Fraternity ceremony in Abu Dhabi in February 2026, the example of Azerbaijan and Armenia should be studied and used as a roadmap by countries still at war.
This is perhaps one of the most important outcomes of the past year. Azerbaijan not only ended a long-standing conflict, restored its territorial integrity, and achieved political consolidation of the war's results, but also proposed a model for transition from conflict to peace, from closed borders to a connected region, and from confrontation to economic cooperation.
Therefore, the question today is no longer whether peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is possible. Over the past year, it has become clear that peace has become the new reality in the South Caucasus. The main question is how quickly this reality will be finally legally enshrined.
And here, Azerbaijan's initiative continues to play a key role. The next stage is to transform the achieved peace into a sustainable system of cooperation that will benefit not only Baku and Yerevan, but also the entire South Caucasus, Türkiye, Central Asia, and Europe.
