ASTANA, Kazakhstan, September 5. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan's credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook, TurkicWorld reports, citing Halyk Finance.
According to S&P, the country's oil and gas sector, which accounts for 20 percent of GDP, more than half of exports, and 30 percent of government revenues, continues to play an important role in maintaining the positive rating.
At the same time, the rating agency notes that the decline in oil production has had a negative impact on economic growth rates and has led to their moderate forecast for GDP growth at the end of the current year at 3.7 percent. The rating agency expects moderate economic growth rates not only in the current year but also in the next three.
As the rating agency noted, even the launch of the future expansion project of the Tengiz field in the second half of 2025, which should increase oil production volumes from 90 million tons in 2023 to 98 million tons in 2025, will not lead, according to S&P, to economic growth above 4.5 percent. Thus, the average GDP growth rate in 2025-2027 will be 3.7 percent per year.
In S&P view, the oil sector remains both the main source of economic growth and the main source of its vulnerabilities. The rating agency notes the high dependence of the transportation of exported oil on geopolitical factors, since 80 percent of exported oil passes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia.
S&P Global Ratings notes that the current rating could be improved if reforms are implemented, non-oil sector growth rates increase, geopolitical risks decrease, and political stability increases.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan's economic growth amounted to 5.1 percent in 2023. Last year, the volume of investments in fixed capital increased by 13.7 percent and amounted to $39.5 billion, while over the first nine months of 2023, $19.7 billion of foreign direct investment was attracted.
