BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 11. Uzbekistan’s forthcoming Surkhandarya–China Business Forum in Termez could reinforce the country’s efforts to attract Chinese investment beyond its major economic centers while positioning the southern region as an emerging platform for trade, manufacturing, and regional connectivity.
Scheduled for August 15, the forum will bring together government officials, investors, and businesses from Uzbekistan and China to discuss opportunities for expanding trade and developing joint investment projects. The event will also feature a "Made in Uzbekistan" exhibition, showcasing the production and export potential of Uzbek companies.
The forum’s format is particularly significant, as it brings together two priorities that have increasingly shaped Uzbekistan’s economic engagement with China: attracting investment into domestic production and expanding international market access for Uzbek-made goods.
China has already established itself as Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner. According to Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee, bilateral trade reached $9.5 billion in the period from January through June, exceeding trade with Russia, which stood at $7 billion, and Kazakhstan, at $2.8 billion.
At the same time, Chinese companies have continued to expand their presence across Uzbekistan’s industrial economy. The country’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade reported that bilateral trade had tripled over the past five years, approaching $18 billion by the end of 2025. During the same period, cumulative Chinese foreign direct investment increased fivefold to $17 billion. More than 6,000 enterprises with Chinese capital are currently operating in Uzbekistan.
This expansion increasingly goes beyond conventional trade. Recent projects and negotiations indicate a growing focus on localization, industrial production and technology transfer.
For example, China's Qingdao Junling Transformers discussed a project in Uzbekistan's Fergana region that would initially involve assembling transformers using imported components before moving toward full-cycle, localized production. Chinese companies are also considering manufacturing projects in Fergana covering construction materials and metal structures.
Such projects illustrate the type of investment Uzbekistan is increasingly seeking: not simply capital inflows, but production facilities that can create jobs, develop local supply chains and potentially generate exports.
This makes the "Made in Uzbekistan" exhibition in Termez particularly relevant. By presenting locally manufactured goods directly to Chinese businesses, the event could help shift the relationship from an investment-centered model to a more balanced one that involves exports and integration into international supply chains.
Uzbekistan has already been working to address some of the practical obstacles to this process. In July, the country's State Customs Committee discussed with China's Optima Integration Group measures to facilitate Uzbek exports to China, including registration with China's General Administration of Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, technical regulations and logistics. The sides also discussed establishing direct links between Uzbek producers and Chinese importers and improving logistics chains.
Financial cooperation is also becoming an important component of the bilateral relationship. In June, the National Bank of Uzbekistan signed a 700 million yuan ($100 million) loan agreement with China Eximbank to expand long-term financing for Uzbek businesses, support investment projects and facilitate imports of Chinese equipment. The NBU said it has secured more than 11.5 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) in credit lines to date.
"I am grateful for the continued trust of our partners at China Eximbank and look forward to further strengthening our cooperation as we support Uzbekistan's long-term economic development," NBU Chairman Alisher Mirsoatov said.
The agreement highlights the growing role of yuan-denominated financing in supporting trade, investment and economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and China.
The choice of Termez also gives the forum a broader regional dimension.
Located in southern Uzbekistan, Termez is strategically positioned for trade routes connecting Uzbekistan with Afghanistan and wider South Asian markets. This makes investment in manufacturing and logistics in Surkhandarya potentially relevant not only to Uzbekistan's domestic market but also to regional trade flows.
The importance of logistics is increasing as Uzbekistan and China develop new transport infrastructure. The two countries are working on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with construction proceeding according to schedule. Uzbekistan and China have described the project as important for increasing international freight traffic, developing regional transport corridors and strengthening trade and economic relations across Central Asia.
Air connectivity is developing alongside rail infrastructure. Uzbekistan Airports and China's Loong Air are exploring direct flights between Xi'an and Fergana, reflecting growing business ties and the rising presence of Chinese-invested companies in the Fergana Valley. The proposed route would complement existing flights to Tashkent and Samarkand and improve access to one of Uzbekistan's major economic regions. Together with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the development highlights Uzbekistan's efforts to strengthen both passenger and cargo connectivity with China. For Surkhandarya, this broader trend is significant as Uzbekistan increasingly seeks to connect its regional economic centers with Chinese investment, trade and transport networks.
Improved connectivity could increase the attractiveness of regions outside Tashkent for Chinese investors, particularly where industrial production can be combined with access to transport corridors and neighboring markets.
Energy and industrial cooperation provide another indication of the depth of the economic relationship. Uzbekneftegaz is currently working with Chinese companies including CNPC, CCDC, Jereh Group and Honghua Group on drilling, oil and gas projects, equipment supplies and digital technologies. Recent discussions have included the supply of drilling rigs, modernization of operations and the introduction of automated drilling and real-time monitoring systems.
The scope of cooperation is also expanding into construction, renewable energy, mining, agriculture, advanced technologies and export-oriented manufacturing. A recent Uzbekistan-China business forum involving companies from China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region focused on precisely these sectors.
Against this backdrop, the Surkhandarya-China Business Forum can be viewed as part of a wider effort to decentralize investment and establish stronger economic links between Chinese businesses and Uzbekistan's regions.
For Surkhandarya, the challenge will be to convert business contacts and memorandums into actual production facilities, export contracts and long-term partnerships. For Chinese investors, the region's value will depend on the availability of infrastructure, industrial sites, raw materials, skilled labor and efficient access to domestic and regional markets.
The forum therefore has significance beyond the two-day business agenda. By bringing Chinese capital and technology together with Uzbek production capacity and regional logistics, the event could further position Surkhandarya as an industrial and trade gateway in southern Uzbekistan.
More broadly, the event reflects the evolution of Uzbekistan-China economic ties from a relationship dominated by trade and individual investment projects toward a more integrated model based on industrial localization, technology transfer, exports and regional connectivity.
