BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 9. The discussion surrounding the development of renewable energy sources in Turkmenistan is increasingly shaped by international climate commitments, regional energy trends, and the country’s domestic economic structure. Unlike several neighboring states, Turkmenistan doesn’t see “green” energy as a horse to ride in place of its hydrocarbon-based model, but rather as a feather in its cap aimed at boosting efficiency, diversifying the energy mix, and meeting international climate requirements.
With regard to its engagement in the international climate agenda, Turkmenistan has taken concrete steps since gaining independence. The country ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995, the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, and the Paris Agreement in 2016, thereby assuming commitments to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to achieve the 1.5°C threshold.
In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution submitted in January 2023, Turkmenistan declared an unconditional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels under a business-as-usual scenario. In 2010, the country’s total emissions amounted to approximately 66.4 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, with the energy sector accounting for around 85% of total emissions. The document covers energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and waste management, placing emphasis on decoupling economic growth from emissions growth through energy efficiency and low-carbon development.
In addition, Turkmenistan has joined a number of international initiatives. In December 2023, the country signed the Global Methane Pledge, a move of particular relevance given the dominant role of natural gas in the national economy. Turkmenistan is also a party to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on the phased reduction of hydrofluorocarbons and supports the Glasgow Declaration on Forests and Land Use. The National Climate Change Strategy adopted in 2019 remains the core framework document for implementing the country’s climate commitments.
In neighboring Central Asian countries, renewable energy development has accelerated in recent years, although starting conditions differed significantly. Kazakhstan has emerged as a regional leader, with wind and solar energy accounting for nearly 5% of electricity generation in 2023. The country has enshrined a carbon neutrality target in legislation, operates an emissions trading system, and plans to increase the share of renewables to 15% by 2030.
For comparison, Uzbekistan demonstrates the fastest growth rates in the region. Since 2022, approximately 2.5 GW of solar and wind capacity has been commissioned, while national targets have been raised to 27 GW of installed capacity and a 40% share of green electricity by 2030. Large-scale solar, wind, and energy storage projects are currently being implemented.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely primarily on hydropower, which provides 76-88% of their electricity generation. Their focus is placed on expanding hydropower capacity, reducing seasonal shortages, and developing cross-border electricity trade within the Unified Energy System of Central Asia.
Against this backdrop, renewable energy development in Turkmenistan remains limited, although regional trends are shaping expectations of a gradual convergence of approaches, particularly in the areas of solar and hybrid generation.
At present, natural gas accounts for approximately 88% of primary energy supply, with the remaining share largely attributable to petroleum products. In 2023, electricity generation reached nearly 31.9 billion kWh, with virtually all output provided by gas-fired power plants.
The share of renewable energy sources remains marginal. According to available data, renewables accounted for about 0.1% of final energy consumption between 2021 and 2023.
At the same time, domestic energy demand continues to grow. In 2024, per capita energy consumption reached approximately 5.7 tons of oil equivalent. Infrastructure development and industrial expansion are increasing pressure on the energy system, making energy efficiency and gas savings increasingly relevant.
In this context, the legal framework for renewable energy development was established with the adoption of the Law of Turkmenistan “On Renewable Energy Sources” on March 13, 2021, including amendments adopted in November 2023. The law regulates the production, conversion, storage, distribution, and consumption of energy derived from solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal sources, as well as biomass and biogas.
The practical rollout of renewable energy policy in Turkmenistan is centered around kicking off pilot and hybrid projects. A key example is the solar-wind power plant with a capacity of 10 MW currently under construction in the city of Gyzylarbat in the nation's Balkan region.
The good news is that preparations are also underway for the implementation of a 300 MW solar photovoltaic power plant in the city of Kerki in the Lebap region. In parallel, efficiency-enhancing projects are being implemented, including the modernization of combined-cycle power plants in the Akhal and Dashoguz regions, which is expected to save up to 500 million cubic meters of natural gas annually. Hydropower in Turkmenistan is represented by the Mary Hydropower Plant, which was commissioned in 2018.
International financial institutions and organizations view renewable energy development in Turkmenistan primarily through the lens of emissions reduction and improved energy efficiency. UNDP and other UN agencies assess national projects in this area as relatively ambitious, expecting their implementation to be financed mainly through domestic resources, with international support provided for monitoring, reporting, and adaptation.
The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development emphasize the need to diversify the energy balance, reduce dependence on natural gas, and modernize infrastructure. Financial and technical assistance, including approximately $15 million in funding from the Global Environment Facility, is directed toward institutional development and the deployment of low-carbon technologies.
Neighboring countries are looking to Turkmenistan to step up to the plate and take the bull by the horns when it comes to regional climate and energy initiatives. They’re hoping for a real game changer in methane emissions reduction, improved gas efficiency, and a boost in energy cooperation within regional programs.
Experience sharing with neighboring countries, participation in international sector-specific platforms, and the consistent development of a national legal framework indicate Turkmenistan’s intention to gradually synchronize its energy indicators with regional trends in Central Asia.
