BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 22. The IMF has lowered its economic growth forecast for Türkiye in 2026 while slightly raising its outlook for 2027.
This was reflected in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) July 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, titled Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology.
According to the report, Türkiye's real GDP is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. Compared with the IMF's April forecast, the outlook for 2026 was revised down by 0.5 percentage points, while the 2027 projection was increased by 0.1 percentage points.
The IMF noted that Türkiye's economy expanded by 3.3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, indicating that growth is expected to moderate in 2026 before returning to its 2025 pace the following year.
More broadly, the IMF projects growth in emerging market and developing economies to slow to 3.8% in 2026 before recovering to 4.5% in 2027. The report says country-specific outlooks continue to reflect differences in commodity exposure, financial conditions, tourism revenues, remittance flows and participation in global technology value chains.
Meanwhile, Türkiye remains one of the largest and most diversified economies in the region, serving as a major manufacturing, export and logistics hub linking Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The country's industrial base and strategic location have made transport connectivity an increasingly important pillar of economic growth, particularly as companies seek to diversify supply chains and trade routes.
Against this backdrop, the Middle Corridor - also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) - continues to gain strategic importance. Stretching from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and Türkiye to Europe, the corridor has become one of the main alternatives for East-West freight flows.
That assessment is broadly consistent with the view of the International Transport Forum (ITF). In an exclusive interview with Trend, the organization said the Middle Corridor will retain its strategic importance even if improving geopolitical conditions make routes through Iran more attractive.
"The Middle Corridor would nevertheless retain strategic value as a diversified Asia-Europe route that avoids both Russia and Iran. It will continue to benefit from strong political and investment support for Eurasian connectivity," the organization said.
