BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 14. Azerbaijan’s oil output fell 120,000 barrels short of the OPEC+ target, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report on the oil market for November 2026 says.
The report noted that in October 2026, daily crude oil production in Azerbaijan amounted to 430,000 barrels. This figure is 10,000 barrels lower compared to September.
According to the report, daily crude oil production in Azerbaijan stood at 440,000 barrels in September, but this figure dropped to 430,000 barrels in October.
According to the IEA’s data, Azerbaijan’s oil production target for October 2026 was set at 550,000 barrels per day. Thus, actual production was recorded at 120,000 barrels below the established target.
The report estimated Azerbaijan’s sustainable oil production capacity at 440,000 barrels per day. The country’s effective spare production capacity amounted to just 10,000 barrels per day.
According to the IEA’s assessment, supply in the global oil market increased significantly in October. Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day compared to the previous month, reaching 105.4 million barrels. Since August, the total increase in global oil production has reached 5.3 million barrels.
The agency forecasted that global oil supply will decrease by an average of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2026, but will increase by 6.6 million barrels in 2027, reaching 108.1 million barrels. Regarding demand forecasts, the IEA expects global oil demand to decline by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, falling to 102.3 million barrels. In 2027, demand is projected to increase by 2 million barrels.
The report pointed out that high fuel prices, the accelerating electrification of the transport sector, and improved vehicle fuel efficiency will limit the recovery in demand, particularly for transport fuels.
According to the IEA’s assessment, supply will begin to exceed demand in the global oil market in Q4 2026, with the market surplus expected to widen further in 2027. Nevertheless, ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker shipping continue to pose risks to the recovery of oil supplies.
