BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 15. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its inflation projections for the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion, lowering the 2024 forecast to 6.8% from 6.9% as per its ADO September 2024 report, while maintaining the 2025 forecast at 6.2%, TurkicWorld reports.
The downward revision reflects subdued inflationary pressures in certain countries within the subregion.
"Thanks to prudent monetary policies, Georgia's inflation remained modest at 1.1% during January-September 2024. Similarly, in the Kyrgyz Republic, decelerating price increases across most product categories resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.8% for the first nine months of the year," the report states.
ADB experts highlighted that low global commodity prices have benefited Tajikistan, where inflation for the first three quarters of 2024 was recorded at 3.5%, significantly below the central bank's target.
The report notes no changes in inflation projections for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) projects that annual inflation will remain within its target range of 4±2% for both 2024 and 2025. The CBA’s latest October forecast sets the 2024 inflation rate at 5.1%.
By the end of 2024, inflation in Azerbaijan's trading partners is expected to decline to 9.8%, down from the 10.3% projected in July. This reduction is anticipated to lower Azerbaijan’s inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage points.
For 2025, the inflation forecast is set at 5.8%, with multiple factors influencing the annual rate. These include government consumption (+0.41 percentage points), household consumption (+1.61 percentage points), agricultural product prices (+3.33 percentage points), and trading partner inflation (+2.42 percentage points). Meanwhile, the non-energy mineral sector (NEM) is expected to contribute a reducing effect of 2.13 percentage points.
These adjustments underline the diverse factors shaping inflation dynamics across the region.
