BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The price of Brent crude could rise to $131 per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.
This was stated in the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) Oil Monthly report.
According to the report, the risks surrounding Brent crude oil prices remain skewed to the upside. The additional upside potential relative to the baseline forecast is estimated at $2.9 per barrel in 2026 and $5.8 per barrel in 2027.
The report said that the new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in Q4 2026, accompanied by attacks on oil infrastructure and/or disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, could lead to a partial halt in the recent recovery of supplies and exacerbate constraints on oil transportation.
"Against the backdrop of depleted inventories, in such a scenario, the price of Brent could rise to $131 per barrel in Q4 2026 and to $96 in 2027. This is $19 and $9 higher than the baseline forecast, respectively.
Another scenario assumes a slower recovery in liquid hydrocarbon supplies from the Middle East amid ongoing operational and export constraints, as well as the absence of a long-term resolution to the conflict. In this case, a slowdown in inventory buildup could push the Brent price up to $117 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to $96 in 2027.
More resilient demand, supported by a recovery in the availability of petroleum products, could raise the 2027 Brent price forecast by $3.50 to $90 per barrel," the institute’s report noted.
At the same time, the OIES also considered scenarios in which prices could fall.
"A diplomatic breakthrough in the fourth quarter of 2026, leading to the lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and a relaxation of sanctions enforcement, could contribute to increased oil exports, lower transportation costs, and reduced risks of supply disruptions.
"As a result, the price of Brent could fall to $83 per barrel in 2027," the report remarked.
Besides, a full or near-full recovery in production in the Middle East by the end of 2027 could accelerate the replenishment of inventories and lead to a decline in the average annual price of Brent to $83 per barrel.
"OIES considers weakening demand to be the most significant downside risk. The prolonged impact of high fuel prices and pressure on industrial activity could limit oil consumption. Under this scenario, the price of Brent could fall to approximately $75 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027, with the annual average dropping to $79.
Overall, according to OIES’s assessment, the aggregate range of possible average annual Brent prices is $95–$105 per barrel in 2026 and $71–$109 in 2027," the institute’s report added.
