BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 10. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran amid military escalation in the Middle East has increased risks for Uzbekistan, a landlocked country dependent on transit routes through neighboring states.
The country’s foreign cargo transportation is carried out through nine international transport corridors, with the southern route via Iranian seaports remaining one of the key directions. A significant share of exports and imports passes through this corridor, accounting for up to 60 % of total cargo flows.
The southern corridor through Iran remains one of the main routes for Uzbekistan’s foreign trade, as it provides access to the ports of the Persian Gulf and further to the markets of the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe. A large portion of cargo is delivered to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas by rail and road through Turkmenistan, after which it is shipped by sea. In the future, Uzbekistan also considered expanding transportation through the port of Chabahar, which was expected to provide an additional outlet to the Indian Ocean and reduce dependence on a single route. Other important directions for the region include the Central Asia–Iran–Türkiye route, projects within the framework of the International North–South Transport Corridor, as well as the Ashgabat Agreement, which ensures access to global markets through Iranian territory.
The main difficulty lies in the fact that Uzbekistan has relied on the southern route through Iran as one of the shortest and most cost-effective ways to reach seaports. In the event of a prolonged military conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, the country is forced to redirect cargo flows to alternative routes, but their use requires time and may lead to higher costs and reduced efficiency of foreign trade.
Even before the current escalation, the Uzbek authorities had begun working on alternative logistics schemes for each foreign trade direction. In June 2025, options were discussed to redirect cargo through Pakistani seaports, as well as to expand the use of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route passing through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
"If difficulties arise in Iran, cargo can be redirected through Pakistani seaports. Goods from Türkiye can be delivered through the Middle Corridor, as well as via the Georgian-Russian border and further through Russia and Kazakhstan," Minister of Transport Ilkhom Makhkamov previously noted.
However, diversification of routes inevitably leads to higher costs. According to preliminary estimates, the redirection of cargo flows may increase transportation expenses by about 30 percent, which could put pressure on import prices and reduce the profitability of export operations. For a landlocked country, such changes directly affect production costs, price levels, and competitiveness in foreign markets.
At the same time, alternative routes also face limitations. The southern route through Pakistan is complicated by the unstable situation on the Pakistan–Afghanistan border, while the northern corridor through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus is affected by sanctions pressure and overall geopolitical tensions. In these conditions, the Middle Corridor is considered one of the most stable options, although its current capacity is still limited and cannot fully replace transportation through Iran.
Trade and economic ties with Iran itself also remain a risk factor. The country is among Uzbekistan’s twenty largest trading partners, and over the past five years bilateral trade has grown from about $250 million to around $500 million. The sides had previously announced plans to increase trade turnover to $2 billion per year, but the ongoing conflict and possible transit restrictions through Iran may complicate deliveries and slow down the implementation of these plans.
According to statistics, Uzbekistan’s imports from Iran amounted to about $421 million in 2025. The main goods include industrial equipment, polymers, chemical products, and food supplies. Possible disruptions in transportation through the Iranian route may lead to higher import prices and increased logistics costs, which would be particularly sensitive for the domestic market.
The situation also has an indirect impact through global energy markets. China, Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner with turnover exceeding $17 billion, imports significant volumes of oil from Iran. Escalation of the conflict could lead to higher oil prices and slower economic activity in the region, which may reduce demand for Uzbek exports and increase pressure on transport and production costs.
Thus, the current situation in the Middle East has increased the importance of diversifying transport corridors for Uzbekistan, whose foreign trade largely depends on stable transit through neighboring countries. Growing risks around Iran and the Persian Gulf are increasing the role of alternative routes and accelerating efforts to expand logistics capabilities, including the Caspian direction and other international corridors.
In the short term, the redirection of cargo flows may lead to higher costs, but in the long term the development of new routes is seen as a necessary step to improve the resilience of foreign trade and ensure stable access for Uzbekistan to global markets.
