BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.21. Initial normalization steps between Azerbaijan and Armenia have led to improvements in regional connectivity, TurkicWorld reports via the S&P Global Ratings.
"Progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan could reduce near-term security risks, although the prospect of a durable peace agreement still depends on signing a binding agreement and its effective implementation," reads the report.
On Feb. 20, 2026, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Armenia to positive from stable.
"The revision of the outlook to positive reflects our view that there is the potential for improvement in regional geopolitical and security dynamics, specifically further progress toward normalizing diplomatic and trade relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan," the report says.
S&P Global Ratings analysts note that negotiations between the two countries have focused on a comprehensive peace framework centered on mutual recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity, border delimitation, and the establishment of diplomatic relations.
"The August 2025 U.S.-brokered agreement marked an important political milestone, signaling commitment at the leadership level and helping to stabilize the security environment. Initial normalization steps have led to modest improvements in regional connectivity and trade, alongside an ongoing Armenia-Türkiye normalization process aimed at reopening borders and establishing diplomatic relations.
Our base-line expectation is for broad political continuity after the June elections, with the new government continuing to focus on reaching a full peace agreement with Azerbaijan," says S&P.
On August 8, 2025, in Washington, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, US President Donald Trump, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration. One of the points of the document provides for the launch of the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) to unblock regional communications.
During the meeting, Foreign Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov and Foreign Minister of the Republic of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan initialed the draft "Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia" and signed a joint appeal to the current OSCE Chairperson-in-Office to close the OSCE Minsk Group process.
On October 21, 2025, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, in a joint press statement with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said that Azerbaijan has lifted all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia that had existed since the time of occupation, and the first such transit cargo was a shipment of Kazakh grain to Armenia.
On December 18, 2025, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) sent 1,220 tons of RON95 motor fuel to Armenia.
On January 9, 2026, a total of 2,698 tons of cargo (48 railcars) was sent to Armenia, including 1,742 tons of RON95 gasoline and 956 tons of diesel fuel.
On January 11, a train consisting of 18 railcars loaded with 979 tons of RON92 motor gasoline was sent to the country.
