BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 13. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan could benefit economically if the conflict in the Middle East lasts longer than expected and drives global oil prices higher, Roberto Cardarelli, Division Chief of the South America II Division in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, and the mission chief for Argentina, said.
He made the remarks during the presentation of the regional economic outlook report "Caucasus and Central Asia Steering Through Uncertainty".
He outlined an adverse scenario in which disruptions to oil supplies from the Gulf become more extensive and persistent than assumed in the IMF's baseline projections.
Under this scenario, Brent crude prices could reach $130 per barrel in 2027 and decline more slowly than projected in the baseline forecast. Oil supply disruptions could amount to around 4 million barrels per day compared with the baseline scenario.
The impact would vary across the region. Oil-exporting economies, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, could potentially benefit from higher energy prices.
Meanwhile, economic growth in regional oil-importing countries could be around 0.5 percentage points below the baseline projection. Inflation would also increase across all countries due to higher energy costs.
Cardarelli stressed that this scenario represents a downside risk to the global and regional economic outlook, as it assumes a more prolonged conflict and greater disruptions to energy supplies than those envisaged in the IMF's baseline forecast.
