BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 5. Analysts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecast that China’s average annual GDP growth will slow significantly over the next decade, according to the center's latest report, TurkicWorld reports via CEBR.
According to the center’s "World Economic Outlook Table 2026" report, China recorded GDP growth of 5% in 2024. However, economic growth is projected to have eased in 2025, with GDP expected to expand by 4.8%. This marks a notable deceleration from the 6.7% average growth rate recorded during the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic period, as the nation faces structural headwinds in its property sector.
CEBR notes that as of 2025, China’s PPP-adjusted GDP per capita is estimated at $29,191, classifying the country as an upper-middle-income economy. Despite the slowing growth, analysts believe China will continue to improve its global standing in terms of individual wealth, with its GDP per capita ranking projected to move from 77th place in 2025 to 64th by 2040.
However, the slowing output has been accompanied by stagnant consumer price growth. Inflation in 2025 remained subdued at approximately 0.7%, a sharp contrast to global trends and well below the targets set in previous years. Analysts highlight that this deflationary pressure is driven by persistent slack in domestic demand and excess industrial capacity.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded the outlook for China’s growth to 5% for 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, citing strong exports and a strategic pivot toward new quality productive forces as the 15th Five-Year Plan begins.
