BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 24. Unambiguous choice of the leadership of Turkmenistan, as well as a solid commitment of the West, are needed to push forward the Trans-Caspian Gas pipeline project, Damjan Krnjević, Director for Policy Research and Analysis at ADA University’s Institute for Development and Diplomacy, former senior adviser to the president and foreign minister of Serbia, told TurkicWorld.
Krnjević reminded that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made it clear that Azerbaijan would still be willing to participate in any Trans-Caspian Gas pipeline project involving Turkmenistan but would not be willing to initiate it or to invest in it.
"Now, you know that in various forms, such proposals involving Turkmenistan have been floating around for decades. None have come close to taking off, because at the end of the day what is required is a clear, unambiguous choice by the leadership of Turkmenistan to pursue it and a similar rock-solid commitment by the Westerners to support it," he said.
As Krnjević explained, this has three interrelated aspects: financing, market demand, and duration of contracts. He noted that the moment has passed when Europeans would be willing to make the sort of commitments that would be needed for Ashgabat to move forward on a large-scale, strategic project - even now, in the context of the West’s decision to divest itself from Russian gas.
He pointed out that this is not simply due to the EU’s policy choice to stay away from new hydrocarbon projects.
"Even if this policy could somehow be reversed, what the Turkmen would look for in addition, are serious security guarantees - unambiguous security guarantees that would involve not just the Europeans but the Americans, too. This is the fourth interrelated aspect, and I think that this is simply not in the cards," he said.
Krnjević pointed out that Turkmenistan considers the project too great of a risk.
"It would not be sufficient to allay Turkmen fears of Russian and Iranian negative reactions. Again, even assuming that the financing and demand and contracts could be ensured," he said.
