According to the November 2024 report, real GDP grew by 4% year-on-year in the first nine months of the year, with the third quarter alone growing by 5.6% compared to the same period last year.
The figure was the highest quarterly growth since the pandemic, with the main driver of the recovery being higher government spending, which rose 5.3% in real terms.
Despite positive changes in the economy, the inflation rate remains high. In September 2024, inflation fell from 9.5% to 8.3%, but continues to exceed the target of 5%.
Food prices moderated to 5%, and non-food prices eased to 7.6%, though service prices remain elevated at 13.6%, likely driven by rising costs linked to robust real wage growth.
The Central Bank left the key rate at 14.25%, which indicates the need to maintain a tight monetary policy to stabilize prices.
Kazakhstan’s banking sector continues to see lending growth – up 13% year-on-year, driven largely by consumer loans, which account for 70% of total lending. This is improving financial inclusion, but also pushing household debt burdens to record levels. Kazakhstan's banks have shifted lending priorities, with households now holding 55% of outstanding credit as of Q1 2024, up from just 20% in 2010.
Consolidated budget receipts totaled $34.7 bln. in 9M of 2024, showing a modest increase compared to the same period last year. Although oil-related revenues fell by 13.2% y-o-y, this decline was more than offset by an 8.3% rise in non-oil tax receipts.
