Clearly the stability of Azerbaijani gas exports is a welcome factor in the EU gas balance, Julian Bowden, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) told TurkicWorld.

Azerbaijan’s ability to supply reliably into TAP from Shah Deniz 2 is a welcome factor, he added.

“EU is looking to replace Russian gas. In order to do this, is has identified a number of supply side and demand side measures which, in combination, would reduce the EU demand for Russian gas imports. The EU says “Phasing-out our dependence on fossil fuels (ie both oil and gas) from Russia can be done well before 2030”. In the gas context, the EU is looking for significant additional imports of LNG and pipeline gas. Talking of resource potential is not relevant here; what the EU is looking for is the immediate prospect of more supply. But even if Azerbaijan had immediate supply available, how would it transport it to Europe? TAP is operating more or less at capacity. It would need to invest in expansion (ie compressors) to transport more gas. To my mind, there is only one way Azerbaijan can supply more gas to Europe in the short-term and that is to facilitate the re-export of Turkmen gas. Longer -term, Azerbaijan needs to accelerate its upstream gas development,” noted Bowden.

Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor began on December 31, 2020. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), the European leg of the Corridor, has recently reached the milestone of 10 billion cubic meters, which is the pipeline's full capacity. TAP's may be expanded to transport 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year, a decision that can be made after market tests.